数字孪生的哲学审视

数字孪生是近年来从概念提出到实践应用快速发展的新兴信息技术,在实现物理世界与虚拟信息世界实时互动沟通方面具有独特优势,在智能制造等领域中具有巨大的应用潜力.然而,数字孪生技术的发展和应用不仅将深刻变革世界,也必将深远塑造人本身,亟需在哲学层面对其本质、优势及其局限性等重要问题进行深入探究.数字孪生是有"限定"的实在和人类意志的外化,是主体认识世界的思维和实践工具;数字孪生在提升人的认知能力、应对复杂系统的不确定性以及扩展人类经验等方面具有独特价值.同时,数字孪生技术在其思维模式、具有强计算主义倾向以及可能形成数字"座架"等方面存在一定的局限性.     

考虑消费者网购体验滞后的产品定价研究

随着电子商务技术的发展，网络购物越来越便利。与此同时，网络购物带来的产品体验滞后也导致了消费者对产品的认知不确定性。而这种不确定性正在成为消费者策略性退货行为的主要原因，如消费者同时购买多件具有横向差异的产品，在收到货物后经亲身体验后保留一件而将其他产品退货。本文通过构建Hotelling模型，探讨了企业在考虑此种影响情况下的最优定价策略，分析得出：当消费者的退货成本增加时，企业最优定价也随之增加；消费者对产品的先验效用差异化越小，企业的最优定价也越低。同时发现，若某种产品无消费者单独购买，企业的最优定价会随消费者偏好的增加而增加；而当两种产品均有消费者单独购买且消费者退货成本较大时，企业的最优定价不但不会随消费者偏好的增加而提高，反而会随消费者偏好增加而减少。此外，本文给出了消费者策略性退货行为存在的临界条件，当消费者的退货成本高于这一临界条件时消费者的策略退货行为将消失。     

Comparison on predictors of mental health service use among Asian older adults

Studies have mostly examined mental health service use of older Asian immigrant combining all Asian Americans into one group whereas immigration backgrounds and socioeconomic status of each Asian minority group are different. Therefore, this study aimed to identify predictors of mental health service use within specific ethnic groups among older Asian adults focusing on Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Filipino, and Vietnamese in California. The Behavioral Model for Vulnerable Populations (BMVP) is used to guide the secondary data analysis of a sample of 3,453 older Asian immigrants from the California Health Interview Survey (CHIS). Logistic and linear regression analyses are performed to examine predictors of mental health service use and the frequency of mental health service use, respectively. As results, mental health‐seeking patterns differ by ethnicity within the older Asian immigrant sample, not being married (Korean), higher levels of acculturation (Filipino), lower levels of neighborhood cohesion (Korean and Vietnamese), higher levels of perceived safety (Korean) and lower levels of perceived safety (Vietnamese), higher levels of mental distress (Korean and Filipino), and having perceived need (all) were related to more visits for mental health services. The study findings highlight the necessity of cultural competency services and programs for each Asian ethnicity.     

论"斛兵塘""量兵塘""站塘"与魏晋屯田

合肥工业大学南校区内有一 口塘,在塘的西北角,合肥市人民政府立了一块石碑,说明塘的名称及其成因.碑文认为此塘名称为"斛兵塘",又称"量兵塘""站塘",是曹操大军南下时为"清点人马"所挖的"土坑".然而碑文存在失实之处,"斛兵塘"是曹魏当年屯田的水利设施,"量兵塘"应为"粮兵塘"之讹,"站塘"实为"占塘"之误.斛兵塘及其名称的变化反映了魏晋时期屯田的兴衰和国有土地演变为私有土地的过程.     

叙说疗法的文学形式及现实意义 ——以谭恩美作品创伤叙事为例

以心理学创伤理论为依据,结合华裔作家谭恩美和母亲的心理创伤,以及叙说疗法在谭恩美作品人物的创伤治愈过程的表现形式,探索创伤理论的叙说疗法对心理创伤治愈起到的关键作用,希冀为心理创伤治疗,尤其是疫情后的心理创伤治疗探索一条可能的道路.     

A New Methodology for Before–After Safety Assessment Using Survival Analysis and Longitudinal Data

The widely used empirical Bayes (EB) and full Bayes (FB) methods for before–after safety assessment are sometimes limited because of the extensive data needs from additional reference sites. To address this issue, this study proposes a novel before–after safety evaluation methodology based on survival analysis and longitudinal data as an alternative to the EB/FB method. A Bayesian survival analysis (SARE) model with a random effect term to address the unobserved heterogeneity across sites is developed. The proposed survival analysis method is validated through a simulation study before its application. Subsequently, the SARE model is developed in a case study to evaluate the safety effectiveness of a recent red‐light‐running photo enforcement program in New Jersey. As demonstrated in the simulation and the case study, the survival analysis can provide valid estimates using only data from treated sites, and thus its results will not be affected by the selection of defective or insufficient reference sites. In addition, the proposed approach can take into account the censored data generated due to the transition from the before period to the after period, which has not been previously explored in the literature. Using individual crashes as units of analysis, survival analysis can incorporate longitudinal covariates such as the traffic volume and weather variation, and thus can explicitly account for the potential temporal heterogeneity.     

Comfort with discussions about death,religiosity, and attitudes about end‐of‐life care

In end‐of‐life (EOL) care research, death anxiety and religiosity are often overlooked. Terror management theory (TMT) may provide a useful conceptual model with which to examine how comfort discussing death and religiosity influence attitudes related to EOL care. A telephone‐based survey was conducted among community‐dwelling adults in the Unites States. Via random sampling, with over‐sampling of Hispanics/African Americans, 123 completed survey interviews (response rate = 46%) were analyzed. Respondents were more likely to have better attitudes toward EOL care if they were older or white, religiously active, and comfortable with the subject of death. Religiosity and comfort discussing death were correlated with each other and remained significant predictors of attitudes about EOL care even without demographic covariates. Findings suggest that promoting an open dialogue about mortality may improve attitudes about EOL care and utilization of palliative care services. The study also provides evidence about the utility and applicability of TMT for EOL care.     

基于SWOT模型的农村地区学前教育发展问题研究

SWOT分析法又称作态势分析法，能够将内部的优势劣势、外部的机会威胁逐条列举出来，并据此建立可视化矩阵图，系统全面地提出针对性策略。学前教育作为基础教育的短板，而农村地区学前教育又是学前教育中的短板。借助SWOT模型系统，全面地分析了农村地区学前教育发展的内部与外部的优势（S）、劣势（W）、机会（O）和威胁（T），进而提出相应的增长型战略、扭转型战略、多元化战略和防御型战略，以促进农村地区学前教育平稳、健康发展。     

连续物料订单分拣完全-并行限定(k=1)轮询控制机理

中国是粮食生产大国和人口大国，粮食问题对于我国经济社会的发展具有举足轻重的影响。现有粮食供应链"层层批发"的流通体制不能满足消费者个性化需求。所以，本文基于客户的个性化需求，应用轮询系统理论来研究面粉、大米等粮食连续物料的订单分拣自动化控制机理。本文根据实际业务需求设定普通订单、优先订单，对优先订单的分拣实行完全服务控制策略，对普通订单分拣实行限定（k=1）服务控制策略，建立完全-并行限定（k=1）的二级优先级订单分拣轮询控制系统模型，确保优先业务订单顾客得到更优质服务，同时保证订单分拣系统的公平性。采用嵌入式Markov链、多维概率母函数和拉式变换求解理论模型，并通过数值计算分析，精确求解其一阶系统特性、二阶系统特性等关键性能参数，从而深入研究连续物料订单分拣的控制机理。     

中国企业国际化过程的“加速”和“跳跃”：过度自信视角

 传统的国际化理论模型长期用一种刻板、静态的思想对国际化活动进行思考，事实上，企业的国际化成长过程存在着复杂的、多元的国际化行为组合和行为序列模式。即使在国际化程度相同的情况下，国际化过程的差异也可能导致截然不同的组织绩效。中国企业国际化过程体现出的“加速”和“跳跃”特征令世界瞩目，但少有研究关注中国企业国际化过程背后的管理者决策逻辑。而且，目前相关研究大多基于管理者理性人假设，忽略了管理者非理性行为对国际化过程特征的影响。        基于高阶梯队和行为金融等理论，探讨高管过度自信对中国企业对外直接投资速度和节奏等国际化动态过程特征的影响，并考察在内部股权结构和外部国际化压力的双重情景下该影响机制的变化情况。以具有国际化行为的中国上市公司为研究样本，通过手工整理获取2007年至2013年301家上市公司国际化过程面板数据，选择固定效应模型进行多元回归分析。        研究结果表明，①高管过度自信与国际化速度和国际化节奏之间均存在显著的正相关关系，即高管过度自信心理会促使中国企业国际化过程的速度增加，不规律性增强；②内部国有股权比例增加显著增强高管过度自信对国际化速度和国际化节奏的正向影响；③企业外部产业国际化竞争压力显著遏制中国企业高管过度自信对企业国际化速度和国际化节奏的正向影响。        在中国特定的制度环境和管理情景下，讨论高管过度自信心理对企业国际化过程特征产生的影响，验证了中国企业国际化扩张背后存在的高管非理性因素，为行为金融理论和国际化过程研究等相关研究领域的进一步推进做出了贡献。另外，探讨内部股权和外部产业竞争的影响，进一步丰富了公司治理和产业竞争的相关实证研究。研究结论对于高管团队管理和企业国际化决策管理具有较好的实践指导意义。